Presentation Title

Economic Predictors of Internationalization of Intrastate Conflicts

Presenter Information

Lindsey Macdonald 6650365Follow

Start Date

November 2016

End Date

November 2016

Location

HUB 260

Type of Presentation

Oral Talk

Abstract

I examine the factors important in predicting internationalization of intra-state conflicts with an emphasis on possible economic predictors. Internationalization of an intra-state conflict, that is military intervention of the conflict by a foreign state that does not take over the bulk of the fighting, has been found to significantly impact the nature, duration, and severity of these conflicts. Of the 151 intra-state conflicts which have occurred since 1960, 44 of them have been internationalized conflicts. Pearson (1974) and more recently Regan (1998) developed models to try and predict likelihood of foreign military intervention. Both of these models relied almost entirely on political relationships or motives. However, economic and cultural relationships or characteristics have also been found to be important sources for intervention motivation. I combine data from a variety of sources, predominantly the Correlates of War project and utilize a linear probability model to test the importance of various factors in predicting internationalization. I include variables representing political, cultural, and economic relationships between the states in conflict and potential intervening nations. My sample includes all intra-state conflicts which have begun since 1960. Are economic predictors significant and important in understanding the likelihood of third party military intervention to the degree of internationalizing a conflict? Have motivations for intervention changed since the Cold War Era? This model finds both of these to be true. Internationalization, especially that which results from motivations other than conflict resolution, can increase duration and death count of these conflicts. This demonstrates the importance in understanding motives behind third party military intervention. By assessing various predictors of internationalization it is possible to identify and address self-interested interventions to aid the international community in working to reduce this kind of intervention and further pursue conflict resolution strategies.

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Nov 12th, 11:45 AM Nov 12th, 12:00 PM

Economic Predictors of Internationalization of Intrastate Conflicts

HUB 260

I examine the factors important in predicting internationalization of intra-state conflicts with an emphasis on possible economic predictors. Internationalization of an intra-state conflict, that is military intervention of the conflict by a foreign state that does not take over the bulk of the fighting, has been found to significantly impact the nature, duration, and severity of these conflicts. Of the 151 intra-state conflicts which have occurred since 1960, 44 of them have been internationalized conflicts. Pearson (1974) and more recently Regan (1998) developed models to try and predict likelihood of foreign military intervention. Both of these models relied almost entirely on political relationships or motives. However, economic and cultural relationships or characteristics have also been found to be important sources for intervention motivation. I combine data from a variety of sources, predominantly the Correlates of War project and utilize a linear probability model to test the importance of various factors in predicting internationalization. I include variables representing political, cultural, and economic relationships between the states in conflict and potential intervening nations. My sample includes all intra-state conflicts which have begun since 1960. Are economic predictors significant and important in understanding the likelihood of third party military intervention to the degree of internationalizing a conflict? Have motivations for intervention changed since the Cold War Era? This model finds both of these to be true. Internationalization, especially that which results from motivations other than conflict resolution, can increase duration and death count of these conflicts. This demonstrates the importance in understanding motives behind third party military intervention. By assessing various predictors of internationalization it is possible to identify and address self-interested interventions to aid the international community in working to reduce this kind of intervention and further pursue conflict resolution strategies.