Presentation Title

Economic Interdependence and the Onset of War

Faculty Mentor

Roger White rwhite1@whittier.edu

Start Date

18-11-2017 11:00 AM

End Date

18-11-2017 11:15 AM

Location

9-251

Session

Interdisciplinary 2

Type of Presentation

Oral Talk

Subject Area

business_economics_public_administration

Abstract

This paper investigates whether economic interdependence increases or decreases the possibility of war between countries. The purpose is to find a link between international commerce and war. It attempts to solve the issue as to whether or not higher economic integration reduces the onset of war and to what extent do these variables measuring economic integration correlate to countries going to war. It relates the incidence of war to situations underlying economics. This study is important because if economic interdependence can reduce the onset of war then it provides an incentive for countries to become more integrated. This paper studies all types of conflict not only civil and international conflict. The data for conflicts is from the correlates of war website from 1816 to 2007. The data for trade flows, GDP, FDI, and IGO’s are from the world bank and IMF. This study is to provide more evidence that commercial factors are important to the outbreak of war. The data is employed through an ordinary least squared regression model with the different types of conflicts from the correlates of war and the independent variables of trade, GDP, FDI, and IGO’s. Results were consistent with the hypothesis that the more economically integrated countries are the less probability of war was between them. This shows that the more integrated countries continue to become the lower the probability that conflict will arise. I expect that the benefits of the independent variables will act as an incentive to avoid war.

Summary of research results to be presented

This paper found through an ordinary least squares regression model that economic interdependence factors of GDP, FDI, trade flows, and IGO's reduce the onset of war. Results were consistent with the hypothesis that the more economically integrated countries are the less probability of war was between them. This shows that the more integrated countries continue to become the lower the probability that conflict will arise.

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Nov 18th, 11:00 AM Nov 18th, 11:15 AM

Economic Interdependence and the Onset of War

9-251

This paper investigates whether economic interdependence increases or decreases the possibility of war between countries. The purpose is to find a link between international commerce and war. It attempts to solve the issue as to whether or not higher economic integration reduces the onset of war and to what extent do these variables measuring economic integration correlate to countries going to war. It relates the incidence of war to situations underlying economics. This study is important because if economic interdependence can reduce the onset of war then it provides an incentive for countries to become more integrated. This paper studies all types of conflict not only civil and international conflict. The data for conflicts is from the correlates of war website from 1816 to 2007. The data for trade flows, GDP, FDI, and IGO’s are from the world bank and IMF. This study is to provide more evidence that commercial factors are important to the outbreak of war. The data is employed through an ordinary least squared regression model with the different types of conflicts from the correlates of war and the independent variables of trade, GDP, FDI, and IGO’s. Results were consistent with the hypothesis that the more economically integrated countries are the less probability of war was between them. This shows that the more integrated countries continue to become the lower the probability that conflict will arise. I expect that the benefits of the independent variables will act as an incentive to avoid war.